Scenarios of regional development under global change (Briefing 1.1)

Abstract

Uncertainty is a key challenge when developing water management strategies for the long-term future. Three highly uncertain factors determining the future water situation in the Jordan River valley were identified: economic development, the potential for regional cooperation in water management and climate change. These factors shape the range of the four “GLOWA Jordan River Scenarios of Regional Development under Global Change”. The “Story and Simulation” (SAS) approach was applied to integrate qualitative information, i.e. narrative scenario storylines, and quantitative information resulting from scientific model simulations. Across several Scenario Panel meetings, experts (scientists and decision-makers) from the region gathered to design four plausible and contrasting scenarios leading up to the year 2050. The four scenarios are 1) “Poverty & Peace” Scenario (an increasingly peaceful political situation is accompanied by economic stagnation), 2) “Willingness & Ability” Scenario (the most optimistic and desirable scenario in which peace and economic prosperity reign), 3) “Modest Hopes” Scenario (assumes that no peace agreement can be reached, but that economic prosperity prevails, kindled by international donors) and 4) “Suffering of the Weak & the Environment” Scenario (worst-case scenario in which neither peace nor economic growth become reality). The focus of the scenarios is on the general socio-economic development in the Jordan River basin. They provide a wide but plausible range of different framing conditions to develop various strategies to manage water resources in order to cope with the impacts of socio-economic and climatic changes in the region.